Tank In Ukraine - In many circles it has become de rigueur to say that Ukraine cannot hope to win against the Russian military in the current war. If this assessment is correct, the obvious outcome of the conflict would be a negotiated settlement that would leave Russia with the territories it currently occupies in exchange for "peace." Having lost most of its eastern agricultural and industrial areas, along with much of the Black Sea coast, Ukraine would become a vassal state, economically inefficient and dependent on outside support for its survival.
In all likelihood, appetite for international aid and support for Ukraine will wane over time, aided by waning interest in sanctions against Russia. Under these circumstances, the prospects for possible membership in the EU and NATO for what is left of Ukraine will disappear. Instead, Ukraine will fall squarely into Russia's orbit. Nor will "peace" follow. As Putin has said many times, Russia has foreign policy ambitions that extend beyond Ukraine.
Tank In Ukraine
It is certainly true that Ukraine may not "win" in the current situation if victory is defined as the restoration of all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory and the decisive defeat of Russia in the region.
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Western financial and security assistance helped Ukraine inflict heavy losses on the Russian military in the air, at sea and on land. However, conscious Western policy decisions to block air power, self-propelled artillery, long-range precision fire and main battle tanks in Ukraine are having their desired effect. Without them, Ukraine would not be able to go on the offensive and expel the aggressors.
Almost certainly, the West has collectively decided not to "humiliate" Putin. While Latvia supplies Ukraine with more military equipment than France, Italy and Germany, the real intentions of the major European states quickly emerge.
However, the logic of this approach breaks down when faced with the high probability of further Russian aggression on NATO territory. When that happens, there will be a lot of whining about "missed opportunities" and "bad calculations." It is better to face the threat now as Russia is emerging from high casualties, depleted stocks of high-tech munitions, low morale, serious losses in senior commanders and inferior generals.
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Destroyed Russian Military Vehicles In Ukraine
A thorough assessment suggests that given the underlying capabilities, Ukraine can win. In terms of manpower, President Zelensky could eventually field a million trained soldiers, despite heavy losses so far. Which is much more than Russia is likely to produce.
Virtually the entire Russian military was deployed to Ukraine, including troops from the Far East and the Kaliningrad exclave. Although "850,000 strong" is often spoken of, the Russian military on the ground is actually under 300,000, with the rest of the Internal Security Forces (Russian National Guard), border police and other organizations unfit for combat in Ukraine. . The force suffered painful losses which could not be compensated by untrained troops and reservists. Nor can Putin resort to full mobilization without putting his regime at great risk. Over time, Ukraine's labor advantage will only increase.
In terms of equipment, Ukraine has a plethora of small arms, body armor and drones along with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. It has a significant tank and artillery force, good intelligence and a well-functioning railway system that enables it to move forces and supplies along interior lines. However, most Ukrainian tanks lack thermal sights, GPS navigation, modern ammunition and advanced armor, while most Ukrainian artillery is towed (and therefore vulnerable to Russian counterfire) and vulnerable to small arms fire and shrapnel. Ukrainian tanks and artillery also outnumber and match the more sophisticated and lethal Russian systems.
Meanwhile, the US A large number of M1A1 main battle tanks and M109A6 155mm self-propelled howitzers are in storage after they have been replaced by upgraded variants. These are beyond current requirements and can be returned in serviceable condition and shipped to Ukraine relatively quickly. Although not the latest technology, they more than match the systems of their Russian counterparts. So far, Ukrainian bravery, courage and tenacity have allowed strong resistance. But it takes such hard skills to win.
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Ukraine's loss of air power and long-range firepower is nowhere near where Russia has a clear advantage. Without a capable air force and a sufficient number of missile artillery platforms, Ukraine cannot target Russian long-range systems that level entire cities in the east and enable slow advance. The small number of HIMARS provided to date has helped, along with a tracked version of the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), but more are needed.
The Ukrainian Air Force fought valiantly, but it could produce no more than 10-20 sorties per day, only 10% of the Russians' total. NATO allies and coalition partners provided strong air support in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan and again could do so without deploying troops to the field. At the very least, allowing Poland and other former Warsaw Pact states to transfer Soviet-era aircraft such as the MIG-29 and SU-25 to Ukraine would make a real difference.
It will take time to absorb the new equipment and train troops to use it, so any counterattack in 2022 will be problematic. However, the Ukrainian military has shown great adaptability and versatility in deploying the wide variety of equipment now provided. We can expect a decisive defense by the end of the year. If the Ukrainian armed forces are retrained and armed, they will be ready to go on the offensive in 2023. Their high morale, innovation, effective leadership and will to win far exceeds the level of the Russian military.
Western leaders will need answers to existential questions to provide Ukraine with an offensive capability. Do we really want Putin to fail? Or will we be discouraged by the constant barrage of sharp threats, especially regarding the use of nuclear weapons? The Russian doctrine of "escalate to de-escalation" is boiled down to its basics: "If you don't allow us to invade and occupy our neighbors, we will nuke you." According to this logic, we cannot face Russian aggression anywhere.
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The US and its British and French allies have successfully relied on nuclear deterrence for several decades. This barrier remains intact and functional. Here we must not succumb to our fears. American and European leaders talk a lot about "preparing for a long war". With skyrocketing energy prices and a global food crisis, the world doesn't need it. He needs to end the conflict quickly.
Since 1945, the West's record in preventing genocide and massive loss of innocent life has been woefully poor. We stood by for what seemed to be political and righteous reasons when thousands of people were killed in Cambodia, Somalia, Rwanda, Sudan, the Balkans and Syria. Now it is happening again as Russia tries to suppress Ukrainian democracy, freedom and culture. If the Atlantic community decides to stand aside again, there will be consequences. This time the conflict will not be in our backyard. It will be at our door.
In short, if the West takes active steps to ensure that Ukraine cannot win, it will not win. However, if it commits to providing the range of capabilities needed for modern high-intensity warfare, Ukraine can and will win. This victory would halt Russian incursions into the European security space for a generation and perhaps forever. It will be a valuable legacy for our leaders and our nations.
R. d. Hooker Jr. is a non-resident senior member of the Atlantic Council. He previously served as Dean of the NATO Military Academy and as Special Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council.
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The views expressed in Ukraine Alert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff or its supporters.
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